Creator Post Archive
Aswath Damodaran
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Mar 24, 2026
Session 33 (of 42): Market Timing - Valuing the Market
The creator discusses valuing the entire market using intrinsic valuation, specifically the dividend discount model. They apply this to the S&P 500, projecting dividends and using a cost of equity to arrive at a valuation, which suggests the market is significantly overvalued based on dividends alone.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 27 (of 42): Too Good to be True - Pure Arbitrage
The creator explains the concept of arbitrage in finance, defining it as a guaranteed investment with a return higher than its risk, essentially a 'money machine'. He differentiates between pure arbitrage (identical cash flows trading at different prices, very rare) and near arbitrage (similar but not identical cash flows with residual risk). The discussion then moves to how arbitrage can occur in futures and fixed income markets, using a storeable commodity as an example to illustrate the principles.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 26 (of 42): Information Trading - Other Announcements
This session discusses how markets react to corporate announcements beyond earnings, focusing on acquisitions. The analysis reveals that target firms generally benefit from acquisitions with significant stock price jumps, while acquiring firms often see little to no benefit, and sometimes even negative returns. The type of acquisition (hostile vs. friendly, cash vs. stock, tender offer) also impacts the outcome for target firms.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 28 (of 42): Close Enough - Near Arbitrage
The creator discusses the concept of "near arbitrage," where similar but not identical assets are priced differently. He uses examples of dual-listed stocks and depository receipts (ADRs) to illustrate how price discrepancies can arise and be exploited, though he notes that transaction costs and price impact often make these opportunities difficult to profit from, especially for highly liquid markets.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 23 (of 42): Information Trading - Following the Insiders
This video discusses the usefulness of insider trading information for outside investors. It examines studies on insider buying and selling, noting that while insider buying generally correlates with stock price increases, it's a noisy signal. Selling by insiders appears to be a stronger indicator of future stock price declines, especially in smaller firms. The discussion also touches on how regulations and company practices have evolved, impacting the availability and interpretation of insider information.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 24 (of 42): Information Trading - Following the Analysts
This video discusses equity research analysts, focusing on sell-side analysts who work for investment banks and share their research publicly. It explores the potential advantages these analysts have, such as access to management, sector specialization, better data, and the ability to influence stock prices through their buy/sell recommendations. The video also highlights that larger companies with higher institutional holdings are more likely to be covered by analysts.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 22 (of 42): Information Trading - Trade on the News
This video discusses information trading strategies, focusing on how investors react to news about stocks. It outlines three main approaches: trading ahead of the news, trading on the news itself, and trading after the news to capitalize on price drifts. The creator emphasizes the importance of assessing market efficiency and investor behavior to determine the best strategy.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 21 (of 42): Growth Investing - Against the tide of history!
The creator discusses growth investing, contrasting it with value investing. They explain that while historically low PE stocks (value) have outperformed high PE stocks (growth), there are periods and economic conditions where growth investing can be more favorable. Factors like low aggregate earnings growth, a flat or downward-sloping yield curve, and recent historical trends suggest potential advantages for growth investors.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 9 (of 42): Random Walks and Momentum
This video discusses the random walk hypothesis in finance, which posits that stock price movements are unpredictable and independent of past movements. It explores the assumptions behind this hypothesis, such as rational investors and publicly available information, and then delves into reasons why it might not hold true in the real world, including investor irrationality and the potential for price changes themselves to convey information. The discussion then transitions to momentum and reversal investing strategies, which are based on the idea that price changes can be correlated.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 15 (of 42): Value Investing - The Activists
This video discusses activist value investing, focusing on how investors aim to increase a company's value by changing its management and operations. It highlights private equity as a major player in this strategy and outlines the typical motives and targets for activist investors, such as undervalued companies with high free cash flows.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 17 (of 42): Investing on Hope - Introduction to Growth Investing
The creator introduces the concept of growth investing, contrasting it with value investing. He defines a growth investor as someone who buys companies where the market underestimates the value of growth, particularly focusing on growth assets. The session will explore various forms of growth investing, starting with small-cap companies, then IPOs, screening for cheap growth stocks, and activist investors in the growth space.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 11 (of 42): Technical Analysis
The creator discusses technical analysis, focusing on the idea that past price patterns can predict future prices, with an increasing role for trading volume. He explains that technical analysts believe price is determined by supply and demand, and that markets focus on mood and momentum rather than value. The creator confesses he is not a chartist but acknowledges that some traders build strategies around charts and indicators, often based on assumptions of investor irrationality.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 14 (of 42): Value Investing - The Contrarians
The creator discusses contrarian value investing, explaining that it involves going against market trends by buying stocks that have fallen significantly, assuming investors overreact to bad news. However, he cautions that simple contrarian trading based solely on price drops can be risky due to factors like low-priced stocks, trading costs, and the need for a long time horizon for reversals to occur. He then transitions to a more refined contrarian value strategy that considers both price drops and underlying fundamentals.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 20 (of 42): Activist Growth Investing - Be your own change agent!
This video discusses activist growth investing, primarily focusing on the role of venture capital in funding and shaping young startups. It contrasts this with activist value investing and touches upon the historical evolution of private equity, including leveraged buyouts. The core of the session delves into the venture capital process, from an entrepreneur seeking capital to the venture capitalist's pricing of the company, highlighting the difference between pre-money and post-money valuation.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 19 (of 42): Growth Investing - Growth at a Reasonable Price (GARP)
The creator discusses screening for growth stocks at a reasonable price (GARP), emphasizing the use of the PEG ratio (PE ratio divided by growth rate) as a key metric. He highlights that simply screening for high growth is insufficient and that historical growth is a poor predictor of future growth, especially for smaller companies. The focus is on finding a mismatch between high growth and low pricing.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 16 (of 42): Value Investing - Where's the beef?
Aswath Damodaran discusses the historical performance of value investing, contrasting its perceived glory days in the 20th century with its struggles in the 21st century. He analyzes traditional value screens (low PE, low price-to-book) and active value investing, finding limited evidence that active research has consistently delivered superior returns, especially in recent decades.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 12 (of 42): Introduction to Value Investing
Aswath Damodaran begins a series on value investing, contrasting it with growth investing. He defines value investors as those focused on assets in place rather than speculative growth assets. He outlines three practice methods: passive screening (like Ben Graham's screens), contrarian investing (buying after significant price drops), and activist investing (pushing for company changes).
Mar 24, 2026
Session 13 (of 42): Value Investing - The Passive Screeners
Aswath Damodaran discusses passive value investing strategies, focusing on quantitative screens. He details book value screens, earnings screens (like PE ratios), and cash yield screens. While historically low price-to-book stocks outperformed, he notes this advantage has been fading, particularly in recent years.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 5 (of 42): Valuation - The Basics
This video introduces the concepts of valuation and pricing in investing. It distinguishes between intrinsic valuation, which focuses on cash flows and fundamentals, and pricing, which is driven by market sentiment and demand. The creator details the discounted cash flow (DCF) model as a primary tool for intrinsic valuation, explaining its components and two main approaches: valuing equity directly or valuing the entire business.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 4 (of 42): Understanding Risk III: The Risk in Equities
The creator discusses the concept of equity risk and the equity risk premium, explaining that equities are inherently riskier than bonds due to their residual claim status. He outlines two methods for estimating the equity risk premium: historical data and implied market expectations, preferring the latter. The creator also touches on the variability of historical risk premium estimates based on calculation methods and time periods.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 3 (of 42): Understanding Risk II: The Risk in Bonds
This video discusses the risks associated with bonds, focusing on interest rate risk and default risk. It explains how changes in interest rates can significantly impact bond prices, using a 4% 10-year coupon bond as an example. The creator highlights that higher coupon bonds are less exposed to interest rate fluctuations.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 2 (of 42): Understanding Risk I: Defining and Measuring Risk
The creator discusses the concept of risk in investing, defining it as a combination of danger and opportunity. He contrasts different ways to measure risk, including price risk vs. cash flow risk, total risk vs. downside risk, and standalone risk vs. portfolio risk. The session emphasizes that higher returns are generally expected for taking on more risk, with an escape clause for arbitrage opportunities.
Mar 24, 2026
Session 1 (of 42): Introduction to Investment Philosophies
Aswath Damodaran introduces the concept of an investment philosophy, differentiating it from a strategy. He emphasizes that a philosophy is a coherent framework for thinking about markets and human behavior, which allows for the development of multiple strategies. Without a philosophy, investors are susceptible to scams, constantly switching strategies, and experiencing stress.
Mar 4, 2026
AI Disruption: Doomsday Scenario or Fizzle?
The creator discusses the narrative around AI, contrasting the optimistic views of its advocates with a more pessimistic "doomsday scenario" presented by Citrini Research. This scenario posits that AI's rapid success could lead to widespread job displacement and economic downturn. The creator intends to analyze this scenario and its implications.
Feb 16, 2026
Data Update 6 for 2026: In Search of Profitability and Value!
The creator discusses the fundamental purpose of businesses, which is to generate profits, and how this concept has evolved over time with critiques from various perspectives. The session will delve into how companies' profitability unfolded in 2025, the impact of AI on profitability, and the importance of covering the opportunity cost of capital.
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