Creator Post Archive
Investing Moats with Varun
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Apr 2, 2026
Drew Cohen Called Meta at $130. Only One Thing Mattered.
The creator breaks down how to analyze Meta's business model by focusing on four key variables: users, time spent, ad load, and ad pricing. They explain that despite numerous external pressures like TikTok competition, regulatory scrutiny, and metaverse investments, the primary concern for Meta at the time was ad pricing, largely due to Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT). The creator highlights how Meta's introduction of Advantage Plus and CAPI demonstrated a solution to the signal loss issue, making the low revenue growth priced into the stock at $130 a low-risk bet. The analysis is then compared to the current market sentiment around software companies, suggesting a similar pattern of fear and potential mispricing. The creator uses an analogy of a picture to explain how investors should focus their research efforts on the most critical questions for a company. For Adobe, the key question is the stickiness of its enterprise marketing software and user adoption of AI features, rather than the threat from AI startups.
Mar 30, 2026
Most SaaS Stocks Won't Survive AI (Ranked)
The creator ranks 18 SaaS stocks based on their AI resilience, categorizing them from S tier (AI helps) to D tier (AI kills). Salesforce and Adobe are placed in C tier due to AI risks and potential for seat compression and competition, respectively. Shopify is S tier due to its strong AI integration and founder's vision. Zoom is D tier, facing significant threats from AI-enhanced productivity tools from Microsoft and Google. Palantir is S tier for being AI-native, while HubSpot is D tier due to its SMB customer base's vulnerability to cheaper AI solutions. CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, and Datadog are all A tier, benefiting from increased AI adoption in cybersecurity and infrastructure monitoring. The creator discusses the impact of AI on various SaaS companies, ranking them based on their perceived moat and risk. Companies like Constellation Software, Topicus, and Lumine Group are placed in B tier, with Lumine Group being the riskiest. ServiceNow is also in B tier, facing competition and pricing concerns. Snowflake is in B tier due to competition and hosting fees. Intuit and monday.com are in D tier due to AI's potential to disrupt their core businesses. Atlassian is in the low C tier, and Workday is in C tier, both facing risks from AI automation.
Mar 27, 2026
Adobe: Fallen Giant or Generational Buy? ($ADBE)
The creator analyzes Adobe ($ADBE), a company down significantly from its highs, focusing on its business model, moat, and capital allocation. Despite concerns about AI impacting its Creative Cloud, the creator highlights the strength of its Document Cloud and Experience Cloud segments, enterprise lock-in, and strong free cash flow. The capital allocation is rated highly due to aggressive buybacks and a low P/E ratio, though the moat is considered average due to AI competition. The creator analyzes Adobe ($ADBE), acknowledging its current cheap valuation and strong cash flow but expressing concerns about its competitive moat and leadership transition. While the stock shows signs of resilience with revenue and user growth, the uncertainty surrounding AI competition and the upcoming CEO change leads to a cautious stance, preventing a buy recommendation at current levels.
Mar 19, 2026
Constellation Software: Value Trap or Generational Buy?
The creator analyzes Constellation Software (CSU), a Canadian software company that acquires and manages niche vertical market software businesses. Despite a 50% drop from its highs, the creator argues it's a "generational buy" due to its strong business model, deep moats built on high switching costs, and excellent capital allocation. While acknowledging AI risks and capital deployment challenges, the creator believes these are outweighed by the company's quality and growth potential. The creator analyzes Constellation Software (CSU), evaluating its potential as a generational buy versus a value trap due to AI risks. Despite acknowledging risks like AI disruption and capital allocation challenges, the creator concludes that the company is a high-quality business trading at the low end of fair value, offering a strong compounding opportunity with protected downside.
Mar 3, 2026
Software: DEAD or Generational Buy? - Drew Cohen
The creator discusses the impact of AI on software companies, differentiating between existential risks and specific competitive threats. While acknowledging that some point solutions are at risk, the discussion focuses on established companies like Adobe, ServiceNow, and Salesforce, arguing that their entrenched positions, proprietary formats, and integrated platforms provide a moat against AI disruption. Adobe, in particular, is highlighted for its ecosystem and sticky user base, making it potentially attractive at current valuations despite unmanifested AI risks. The creator discusses how to analyze software stocks, using Adobe and Meta as examples. For Adobe, the focus is on valuation multiples and growth assumptions, suggesting it could be an opportunity if it's not a "melting ice cube." For Meta, the creator breaks down the business model into key variables (users, time spent, ad impressions, ad pricing) to analyze risks like AI, TikTok competition, and Apple's ATT, concluding that the core business drivers were stronger than perceived during a period of fear. The creator discusses how the market's fear surrounding software companies, using Adobe as an example, mirrors the past sentiment around Meta. The analysis focuses on identifying the core risks and sticking points for businesses, emphasizing incumbent competition over speculative AI threats. The creator highlights the importance of understanding switching costs, enterprise contracts, and existing user behavior rather than focusing on hypothetical AI competitors. The creator discusses the competitive landscape in the software industry, particularly focusing on enterprise software and vertical market software (VMS). He contrasts the perceived threat from AI-native startups with the strength of incumbent competitors like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, and Constellation Software. The discussion highlights that switching costs, integration complexities, and existing customer loyalty are significant barriers for new entrants, even with AI advancements. The creator emphasizes that human incentives and the mission-critical nature of software for businesses often outweigh the potential benefits of new AI-driven solutions, making it difficult for startups to displace established players. The creator discusses the potential impact of AI on software companies, focusing on pricing models and margin pressure. They analyze how companies like Adobe and Salesforce might adapt to AI-driven efficiency gains by charging existing users more or adopting new pricing structures. A significant portion of the discussion revolves around Constellation Software (CSU), specifically the risk of their inability to deploy capital effectively as they grow, and the metrics to watch for this risk. The creator discusses the long-term viability of software businesses and the challenges of sustaining high growth rates. They then delve into Copart (CPRT), detailing its strong competitive advantages in the vehicle salvage auction business, including integrations with insurers, a network of licensed yards, and a global marketplace. However, a potential long-term risk is identified: the possibility of fewer car accidents due to autonomous vehicles, which could diminish the relevance of Copart's core business. The creator discusses the business of Copart, highlighting potential long-term risks related to declining car accidents due to autonomous vehicles. The conversation then shifts to investing philosophies, emphasizing the importance of reading and continuous learning, drawing parallels to Warren Buffett's approach. The guest, Drew Cohen, shares his journey from trading leveraged ETFs to deep-dive business analysis.
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