Source Post

Brace Yourself.

May 7, 2026

The creator discusses the massive spending on AI infrastructure by tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble. They warn that this spending, while currently boosting S&P 500 earnings through companies like Nvidia and TSMC, may be unsustainable and could lead to a market downturn if returns on investment falter, similar to the telecom industry's fiber optic build-out in the late 1990s. The US manufacturing PMI is highlighted as a key indicator to watch for signs of slowing economic activity that could precede an earnings collapse.

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Tickers discussed in this post

TSMNeutralLow ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

TSMC is identified as a company providing equipment for AI infrastructure and thus benefiting from increased capital expenditures.

NVDANeutralLow ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Nvidia is highlighted as a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending, with its earnings growth tied to this trend.

ORCLNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Oracle is mentioned as a company spending heavily on AI infrastructure and has also reported layoffs.

GOOGLNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Alphabet is among the tech giants expected to spend significantly on AI infrastructure.

METANeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Meta is noted for its substantial AI infrastructure spending and has also implemented layoffs.

AMZNNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Amazon is identified as a major spender on AI infrastructure, contributing to the current market trends.

MSFTNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Microsoft is mentioned as one of the companies spending heavily on AI infrastructure, with layoffs occurring to offset these costs.

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