Source Post

Microsoft Is Down Nearly 40% — Buy Now or Big Mistake?

Jun 26, 2026

The creator discusses Microsoft's significant drawdown from its 52-week highs, questioning whether the current price presents a buying opportunity or if the market is repricing the stock due to concerns about AI profitability and high spending. The analysis delves into Microsoft's underperformance relative to other tech giants and the broader market, highlighting the divided market sentiment and valuation concerns.

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Tickers discussed in this post

GOOGLBearishMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Bill Ackman sold Alphabet to fund his purchase of Microsoft, indicating Microsoft is now seen as a better risk-reward opportunity.

AAPLNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Apple is described as mixed in its performance within the 'Mag 7' group.

METANeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Meta is mentioned as being questioned within the context of the 'Mag 7' stock performance.

GOOGNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Google is noted for having its own recovery, suggesting a performance distinct from other 'Mag 7' companies.

NVDANeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Nvidia is mentioned as being in a different category within the 'Mag 7' stocks, implying a distinct performance or outlook compared to others.

MSFTNeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedPrimary

Microsoft's significant drawdown presents a complex situation, with the creator's DCF suggesting undervaluation but a low-case scenario indicating it's not cheap, making the buy decision dependent on future free cash flow from AI spending.

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