Source Post

These Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap… Not for Long (DVN, EOG)

The discussion focuses on energy stocks, particularly Devon Energy (DVN) and EOG Resources (EOG), highlighting their value and potential for growth amidst geopolitical events and supply constraints. The conversation also touches upon other sectors like fertilizers (CF Industries), copper (Southern Copper), housing-related stocks (LPX, MLI), and the broader investment philosophy of deep value investing, emphasizing mean reversion and contrarian approaches.

Linked Mentions

Tickers discussed in this post

MLIBullishLow ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Miller Industries (MLI) is identified as a housing and rebuilding stock that is currently out of favor, with a long-term investment thesis based on potential market mean reversion.

LPXBullishLow ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) is mentioned as a housing-related stock that is currently beaten down, with a thesis for a 3-5 year hold as the housing market potentially recovers.

SCCOBullishHigh ConvictionSignal-backedPrimary

Southern Copper is highly recommended due to its position as a pure-play copper producer with the world's largest copper reserves, benefiting from infrastructure spending and supply constraints.

CFBullishHigh ConvictionSignal-backedPrimary

CF Industries is a favored fertilizer maker that leverages cheap US natural gas to produce fertilizer, offering stable margins and disciplined capital allocation.

CRCBullishMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

California Resources Corporation (CRC) is seen as a play on California's market, benefiting from higher oil prices and carbon credits, with longer-lived wells.

APABullishMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Apache Corporation is mentioned as a slightly more speculative play with shale assets, longer-lived wells in Egypt, and exploration in Suriname, offering optionality.

EOGBullishHigh ConvictionSignal-backedPrimary

EOG Resources is highlighted as a strong independent producer that models conservative oil price assumptions, ensuring high IRRs and benefiting from current oil prices.

DVNBullishHigh ConvictionSignal-backedPrimary

Devon Energy is recommended as a best-in-class shale producer with strong capital allocation, share repurchases, and free cash flow generation, poised to do well with oil prices at $80 and above.

Linked Signals

Tracked calls opened from this post

SCCO
buy opened Apr 15, 2026
+5.18%
EOG
buy opened Apr 15, 2026
+3.74%
DVN
buy opened Apr 15, 2026
+2.14%
CF
buy opened Apr 15, 2026
-4.61%