Miller Industries (MLI) is identified as a housing and rebuilding stock that is currently out of favor, with a long-term investment thesis based on potential market mean reversion.
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These Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap… Not for Long (DVN, EOG)
The discussion focuses on energy stocks, particularly Devon Energy (DVN) and EOG Resources (EOG), highlighting their value and potential for growth amidst geopolitical events and supply constraints. The conversation also touches upon other sectors like fertilizers (CF Industries), copper (Southern Copper), housing-related stocks (LPX, MLI), and the broader investment philosophy of deep value investing, emphasizing mean reversion and contrarian approaches.
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Tickers discussed in this post
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) is mentioned as a housing-related stock that is currently beaten down, with a thesis for a 3-5 year hold as the housing market potentially recovers.
Southern Copper is highly recommended due to its position as a pure-play copper producer with the world's largest copper reserves, benefiting from infrastructure spending and supply constraints.
CF Industries is a favored fertilizer maker that leverages cheap US natural gas to produce fertilizer, offering stable margins and disciplined capital allocation.
California Resources Corporation (CRC) is seen as a play on California's market, benefiting from higher oil prices and carbon credits, with longer-lived wells.
Apache Corporation is mentioned as a slightly more speculative play with shale assets, longer-lived wells in Egypt, and exploration in Suriname, offering optionality.
EOG Resources is highlighted as a strong independent producer that models conservative oil price assumptions, ensuring high IRRs and benefiting from current oil prices.
Devon Energy is recommended as a best-in-class shale producer with strong capital allocation, share repurchases, and free cash flow generation, poised to do well with oil prices at $80 and above.