Source Post

The Real Reason AI Kills SaaS Stocks

The creator discusses the risks AI poses to SaaS companies, specifically focusing on the potential for in-house AI development (vibe coding) and the transition from per-seat pricing to usage-based models. While in-house development is deemed overrated, the shift to usage-based pricing is considered underrated due to its potential to disrupt revenue streams for SaaS providers.

Linked Mentions

Tickers discussed in this post

BKNGNeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Booking is mentioned as leaning into the MCP protocol and partnering with OpenAI, which could lead to users booking rooms without visiting Booking.com.

MSFTNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Microsoft is expected to face similar competitive pressures and opportunities driven by AI advancements in the software market.

NOWNeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

ServiceNow is using AI to expand into CRM and other verticals, aiming to become an AI control tower and facing competition from Salesforce.

ADBENeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Adobe's current AI pricing appears to allow for a margin, but the creator questions its long-term sustainability and cost-effectiveness compared to direct AI model providers.

CRMNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Salesforce is cited as an example of a SaaS company potentially facing margin compression due to AI token costs.

INTUNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Intuit is mentioned as a software company that could be negatively impacted by AI token pricing if they don't have their own competitive AI model.

GOOGNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Google is mentioned as a potential player that might target niche creative design areas with AI, focusing on consumer mindshare rather than immediate business generation.

METANeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Meta could benefit from AI-driven productivity gains, potentially allowing for more employee reductions.

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