A backtest shows that shorting the S&P 500 when the Sahm Rule is triggered can be profitable over 3-6 month periods, but with significant variance over a year.
Source Post
A Stock a Day Until I Can Quit My Job: Day 80
Sep 8, 2025
This reel explains the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator based on unemployment rate changes. It details how the rule works, its historical accuracy, and its implications for traders and economists trying to predict economic downturns. The creator also presents a backtest of shorting the S&P 500 when the rule is triggered, highlighting the variance in returns over different time periods.
Linked Mentions
Tickers discussed in this post
Linked Signals
Tracked calls opened from this post
No linked signals were opened directly from this post.