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The Stock Market's Midterm Election Pattern: 98 Years of Data

Jul 13, 2026

This video analyzes historical stock market performance over 98 years in relation to the US presidential election cycle, focusing on the S&P 500. It highlights that the pre-election year (e.g., 2027) has historically been the strongest, with an average return of 17.8% and a 91.7% probability of positive returns. The year following the midterms (also the pre-election year) and the presidential election year (e.g., 2028) are also identified as strong performers.

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The S&P 500 has historically shown positive returns in 72 out of 98 years, with a 73.5% chance of going up in any given year.

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