Source Post

Why I’m Not Buying Tesla Stock Until It Crashes 50%

Jul 28, 2026

The creator discusses Tesla's stock, noting its recent sell-off from highs but expressing caution about buying until a significant crash occurs. While acknowledging positive aspects like the Model Y's success and potential in services/robotaxi, the creator highlights declining growth rates in energy, margin pressures in automotive and energy, and a significant portion of net income coming from non-operating SpaceX gains. The creator believes Tesla is not currently cheap relative to its operating performance and valuation multiples.

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Tickers discussed in this post

MSFTNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Microsoft is mentioned as having a valuation similar to other tech giants, implying it is less expensive than Tesla.

AMZNNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Amazon is mentioned as having a valuation similar to other tech giants, implying it is less expensive than Tesla.

AAPLNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Apple is cited with a P/E of 37x as a benchmark for valuation, indicating Tesla is significantly more expensive.

GOOGNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Google is mentioned as having one of the lowest valuations among large tech companies at 16.5x P/E, making it a cheaper alternative to Tesla.

METANeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Meta is mentioned as having a valuation similar to other tech giants, with a P/E of 18.5x, making it a less expensive option than Tesla.

NVDABullishMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Nvidia is presented as a better alternative to Tesla for growth investors, with a more attractive forward PE of 19.9x and looking cheap on a price-to-sales basis compared to Tesla.

TSLANeutralLow ConvictionSignal-backedPrimary

The creator is not buying Tesla stock until it crashes 50%, citing concerns about valuation and declining margins despite positive aspects like the Model Y.

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