Source Post

These 5 Stocks Look Cheap—Then I Changed ONE Number

Aug 18, 2026

The creator discusses the current market environment, noting that while the S&P 500 is at record highs, the underlying message is less comfortable due to falling tech stocks and rising interest rates. The market's cyclically adjusted valuation is near dot-com bubble peaks, making valuation assumptions critical. The creator plans to analyze five companies by testing their valuations with different discount rates, highlighting that one stock appears significantly undervalued initially but loses its margin of safety with a small discount rate increase.

Linked Mentions

Tickers discussed in this post

HDNeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedPrimary

Home Depot is a mature, resilient business with stable revenues, but its valuation appears fair, trading at its 5-year average P/E despite recent underperformance.

MSFTNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Microsoft is mentioned as one of the hyperscalers with significant disclosed purchase commitments and leases for AI infrastructure.

AMZNNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Amazon is mentioned as one of the hyperscalers with significant disclosed purchase commitments and leases for AI infrastructure.

GOOGLNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Alphabet is mentioned as one of the hyperscalers with significant disclosed purchase commitments and leases for AI infrastructure.

NVDANeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Nvidia earnings are mentioned as a factor to consider in the current market environment.

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