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Is the AI Trade DEAD? The FULL AI Stock Thesis Break Down.

Aug 28, 2026

The creator discusses a six-page analysis on the AI semiconductor market, questioning if the current hardware rally is sustainable. The analysis suggests a dual S-curve of user growth and token usage could extend the rally beyond the dot-com bubble, but the creator rebuts this by highlighting the rapid depreciation of token costs and practical limits on AI usage, arguing that this diminishes the multiplier effect.

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QCOMNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Qualcomm is mentioned as a historical example of a company that maintained margins against cheaper competitors, but the creator argues this analogy doesn't hold for AI due to significant cost differences and the ability to swap AI models.

COINNeutralHigh ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

The creator highlights 'Coin' as a significantly cheaper alternative to 'Fable 5', suggesting it offers comparable performance at a fraction of the cost.

NVDANeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Nvidia is mentioned in the context of high spending on AI hardware, with the creator noting the significant cost difference between Nvidia's token prices and cheaper alternatives.

BABANeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Alibaba's Quen model is mentioned as an example of a low-cost AI token provider.

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