The creator mentions Jamie Dimon's strategy of holding cash at the Fed, contrasting it with SVB's investment in MBS and highlighting it as the correct approach.
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How I Predicted Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse 4 Months Early | Derek Pilecki
Sep 20, 2026
The creator discusses the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), detailing how he identified its insolvency four months prior by analyzing its balance sheet and earnings releases. He explains that SVB invested heavily in long-dated mortgage-backed securities with low coupons using deposits from booming venture capital firms, which became a significant loss as interest rates rose. He attributes this mismanagement entirely to SVB's leadership, contrasting it with the more prudent treasury bill holdings of investors like Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon.
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The creator points out that Bank of America also held a significant amount of mortgage-backed securities with low coupons, similar to SVB, indicating a potential systemic risk.
The creator notes that similar issues to those at Silicon Valley Bank also occurred at Schwab, implying a broader systemic problem in bank management.
The creator identified Silicon Valley Bank as insolvent four months before its collapse by analyzing its balance sheet and calculating significant mark-to-market losses on its securities holdings.
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