Source Post

TSM Stock: Is The AI Chip Cycle Peaking?

The creator analyzes TSMC (TSM) stock, focusing on the chip cycle to determine optimal buying points. While acknowledging TSMC as a great business with a wide moat, the current analysis suggests the cycle is too high for a buy, with the stock being fairly valued at best. The creator is waiting for a downturn in the chip cycle to buy at a lower price.

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AAPLNeutralLow ConvictionResearch Only

Apple's inventory growth has been below revenue growth, indicating the chip cycle is not reverting, though its cyclical nature makes it a less clear indicator.

NVDANeutralMedium ConvictionSignal-backedSecondary

Nvidia's inventory growth exceeding revenue growth is a leading indicator for TSMC, and currently suggests the chip cycle is not reverting.

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