$AMAT

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: multiple relative

Applied Materials is now trading at a forward price to earnings of 22.7, which is a little bit below the average valuation the stock has traded for going back a few years. This is a much more attractive valuation and an undervalued valuation given the company's characteristics on revenue, profit margins, and returns on invested capital.

Implied claim • strong conviction • basis: fair value gap

Now, if you had owned the stock back here, you should have been alerted the stock was getting overvalued, but you might not have sold. And if you didn't sell over the next year or so if you held it through this period of time, you'd have lost about 30% of your money on paper unrealized. But if you held on, you can see the price went up. It got overvalued again. And then from here, the price corrected once again down to fair value. And it did it here in a relatively short time from June of 2024 to March of 2025. But then we've had starting in March of 25 here, we've had this strong advance or assault of view of the stock price, but you also had some basically really good earnings years which kind of stimulated this I'll call it overly optimistic view of the business in terms of its value. Now you can see that once it reached the peak and no there's no way to know when that peak would occur as this was happening but once it reached the peak valuation here we now seen this correction that's been about 25% since June of this year. So the stock looks appears to be moving back to fair value.

Implied claim • strong conviction • basis: growth vs multiple

And it's currently flagging Applied Materials AMAT as one of the top picks.

Implied claim • strong conviction • basis: explicit term

Burie opened fire on the whole momentum trade at once, disclosing bets against Nvidia, Applied Materials, Socks, Caterpillar, and Tesla, all on one single day.