$OSCR

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: growth vs multiple

So first, they went through what happened over the last two years. Revenue has 7x since 2021, and profitability has finally started to show. They raised their annual revenue guidance for this year to be between $18.7 to $19 billion. They also raised their 2026 operating earnings guidance by $100 million at the midpoint. They have about 3 million members. And that's up from 1.6 million in 2024. Their market share has reached about 30%, up from 16%. The medical loss ratio is expected to be around 81 to 82%, which is an improvement from prior guidance. All of that is great, right? There's a reason why the stock price has doubled year to date. But, what about the future? Well, they are now targeting for 2029 a revenue CAGR of over 20% from 2026 to 2029, and an operating margin of 5 to 7%, and earnings of over $4. Of course, if you want to use a forward P/E multiple, yes, it's trading at less than 10 times their 2029 earnings, despite their expectation of over 20% compounded growth over the next couple of years.

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: price target upside

we're going to see a rebound to 30, maybe even 35 and I think on the very very high side of things, I think we could see Oscar go to $40 per share

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: fair value gap

DCF model values the stock at $29.83 per share.

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: explicit term

So, I clearly had the technical skill to understand that Oscar was wrongly priced. But here is the problem. I know a lot about valuation. I even invented my own method to value companies, but I know absolutely nothing about the US healthcare system. It's completely outside my circle of competence and I had no idea how the government policy could impact Oscar. So when the stock price kept dropping, I started doubting my own assumptions. I was not able to hold a company I did not fully understand. I end up selling at $13.73, taking a tiny 4% profit. Today is trading around $29.