$UNH

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: fair value gap

So, on a forward earnings multiple basis, the stock is now trading at 16.5, which is still on the lower end of the range that the stock has traded at on this metric over the past few years. So, given the better-than-expected improvement in net earnings, I have revised my estimates for the amount of free cash flow that I expect the company to generate over the next several years. I have increased my estimates by several billion dollars, about $3 billion annually starting in 2026 and beyond. And that has had the effect of increasing the intrinsic value of the stock to $518.

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: growth vs multiple

So, if we do some math, ultimately what this means is that UNH could actually be closer to around $475 to $500 per share if they are valued based off their revenue and their margins

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: multiple relative

This is a stock where the market has clearly become much more nervous and that seems to be exactly why Congress has been stepping in.

Explicit claim • strong conviction • basis: drawdown discount

Stock is trading at multi-year lows with a significant discount.