Creator Post Archive
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.
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Oct 1, 2025
DOW, BASF, LyondellBasell, Celanese - Chemical Sector Overview!
The creator provides an overview of the chemical sector, noting that stocks are down due to a cyclical downturn. He discusses Dow's potential as a dividend play if it returns to normal, but cautions about the uncertainty of the downturn and potential dividend cuts. The creator explains that overcapacity and a global slowdown are key issues, and that the sector is not yet at the bottom.
Sep 30, 2025
Keurig Dr.Pepper KDP Stock Analysis + JDEP
Sven Carlin criticizes Keurig Dr Pepper's acquisition of JDE Peet's, arguing that the deal is overpriced, heavily leveraged, and likely to destroy shareholder value.
Sep 29, 2025
UPS Stock Looks Cheap But Is A Value Trap!
The creator warns that UPS is a value trap facing a likely dividend cut and structural disruption from Amazon's superior scale and investment.
Sep 25, 2025
UPS Dividend To Be Cut on Bad Management & Amazon Competition!
The creator analyzes UPS, noting its stock decline due to reduced volumes and the strategic decision to decrease reliance on Amazon. While fundamentals appear cheap with a high dividend yield, the creator questions if it's a value investment or trap, highlighting potential for a dividend cut and competition challenges. Analyst sentiment has shifted negatively, and the creator advises ignoring Wall Street recommendations.
Sep 25, 2025
Crocs Stock Analysis
The creator analyzes Crocs after a 50% price drop, weighing its high free cash flow yield against declining revenue and margin guidance.
Sep 23, 2025
Crocs Stock Crash - Buy When Ugly?
The creator analyzes Crocs as a potential value play, highlighting its massive free cash flow yield and low valuation following a significant stock price decline.
Sep 21, 2025
Value Investing Portfolios, Strategy, Stocks / Research Platform!
The creator provides an update on his value investing research platform, emphasizing a strategy focused on low P/E ratios and margin of safety while reviewing specific portfolio examples.
Sep 16, 2025
When To Buy Rio Tinto Stock!
The creator advises against holding Rio Tinto at current levels, citing cyclical risks in the iron ore market and a potential slowdown in Chinese demand.
Sep 15, 2025
Newmont Gold Stock A Buy or Sell Now on High Gold Price?
The creator suggests reducing exposure to Newmont Mining after a significant price run-up, noting that management's aggressive buybacks may be a sign to take profits while gold prices are high.
Sep 15, 2025
RIO TINTO STOCK - A CYCLICAL VALUE INVESTING ANALYSIS
The creator analyzes Rio Tinto as a cyclical value play, advising that the best time to buy is during a market crisis or a significant drop in iron ore prices.
Sep 13, 2025
Stocks you with to buy: TGT, STZ, NOVO, PUMA, NEWMONT GOLD, WHR, HEINEKEN
The creator discusses his approach to value investing, emphasizing a need-to-know basis for research and focusing on risk-reward. He begins an analysis of Target, noting its significant price drop and its nature as a retailer.
Sep 12, 2025
Uber Stock is Bill Ackman's Top Position
The creator analyzes Uber, noting it is Bill Ackman's top position and highlighting its strong growth metrics and potential for a future monopoly in the autonomous vehicle space.
Sep 10, 2025
Nike Stock Not A Bet I'm Taking
The creator evaluates Nike and Lululemon within the athleisure sector, ultimately passing on both due to valuation concerns and shifting consumer preferences.
Sep 10, 2025
Big Boys Stocks To Buy!
The creator analyzes recent institutional moves, criticizing Apple's high valuation and stagnant growth while identifying value in homebuilders like Lennar and Green Brick Partners.
Sep 9, 2025
Value Stock To Buy Idea!
Sven Carlin updates his top value stock picks, highlighting Equinor as a high-yield opportunity despite broader market gains.
Sep 5, 2025
5 Stocks To Buy From Value Investing Risk Reward Quadrant
The creator presents a value investing quadrant update, highlighting five stocks to buy. He expresses strong caution regarding the S&P 500, viewing it as a high-risk, low-return investment due to elevated valuations. He also discusses Nike and Lululemon as high-risk, low-return bets and analyzes Schwab's dividend ETF, suggesting its current price offers a lower-than-desired return with insufficient margin of safety.
Sep 2, 2025
Nike & Lululemon Stocks Comparison
The creator compares Nike and Lululemon, concluding that Nike carries too much valuation risk despite turnaround hopes, while Lululemon appears significantly cheaper.
Jun 25, 2025
Value Investing Strategy, Portfolios, Performance, 2 Stocks, Research & More…
The creator outlines his value investing philosophy, emphasizing a business owner's perspective, risk assessment, and a focus on the midterm rather than short-term market sentiment. He highlights that the market is myopic and often reacts to events after the fact, leading to opportunities for long-term investors. The creator also mentions his investment performance and the average frequency of recessions.
Jun 18, 2025
Kraft Heinz Stock Analysis KHC Stock
The creator identifies Kraft Heinz as a significant value opportunity, noting that while the business faces structural headwinds and declining organic sales, the current valuation and 6% dividend yield are highly attractive.
Jun 17, 2025
Google Stock To $500 or $90! That is Investing!!!
The creator outlines a bullish scenario for Google where earnings growth and P/E expansion could drive the stock to $500, using Apple's valuation as a benchmark.
Jun 15, 2025
Valaris Stock Analysis - 3x with little risk!
Sven Carlin highlights Valaris as a deep value opportunity, citing a massive disconnect between its market capitalization and the replacement value of its offshore drilling assets.
Jun 14, 2025
Risk vs. Uncertainty - Valaris, Pabrai, Investing Strategy!
The creator discusses the concepts of risk and uncertainty in investing, using Valaris (VAL) as a case study. He highlights the potential upside for Valaris due to tight supply, high newbuild costs, and potential increases in offshore oil demand, noting that Pabrai has a significant position in the stock. The creator frames this as a positive risk/reward scenario, despite the sector's past bankruptcy and the inherent cyclicality of oil prices.
Jun 13, 2025
Best Time To Buy Volkswagen, Ford, Stellantis Stocks in 5 Years!!!
The creator argues that the automotive sector is at a cyclical 5-year low, presenting a major buying opportunity for value investors in companies like Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Ford.
Jun 12, 2025
Albemarle Lithium Stock a Buy Now?
The creator evaluates Albemarle as a cyclical investment opportunity, noting that while lithium prices are currently depressed, a market rebound could lead to significant gains.
Jun 11, 2025
Vale Stock Analysis 2025 (Iron ore supply & demand outlook)
The creator analyzes Vale, concluding that while the stock appears cheap, it lacks a sufficient margin of safety given iron ore price sensitivity. He highlights risks from weakening Chinese demand and ongoing environmental liabilities.
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