Creator Post Archive
ClearValue Tax
Browse the full post archive, then jump into the source post to inspect linked mentions and linked signals.
Jul 13, 2026
The Stock Market's Midterm Election Pattern: 98 Years of Data
This video analyzes historical stock market performance over 98 years in relation to the US presidential election cycle, focusing on the S&P 500. It highlights that the pre-election year (e.g., 2027) has historically been the strongest, with an average return of 17.8% and a 91.7% probability of positive returns. The year following the midterms (also the pre-election year) and the presidential election year (e.g., 2028) are also identified as strong performers.
Jul 2, 2026
Jobs Report: Much Worse Than Expected
The creator discusses the June jobs report, which significantly underperformed expectations, with only 57,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 115,000. This weak labor market data suggests the Federal Reserve is less likely to raise interest rates at their upcoming July meeting, as indicated by a sharp drop in the probability of a rate hike according to the CME FedWatch tool. The report is seen as reducing inflationary pressure, further supporting a pause in rate increases.
Jun 29, 2026
The Fed's Money Printing Machine Never Stopped
The creator analyzes the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, noting that it has increased by $189 billion since the start of the year, indicating continued money printing. Despite the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, promising to shrink the balance sheet and fight inflation, the holdings have increased by nearly $20 billion in the past month, leading the creator to believe Warsh has broken promises.
Jun 26, 2026
Inflation is Rising Again — Here's What the Fed Will Do
The creator discusses the recent rise in PC inflation to 4.1% and core PC inflation to 3.4%, noting it's the highest in three years. They analyze the Federal Reserve's potential actions, specifically regarding interest rates at the upcoming July meeting. The creator expresses skepticism about the market's perceived odds of a rate hike, sharing their personal decision not to bet on the CME FedWatch tool's implied odds due to low payouts.
Jun 24, 2026
US Debt Crisis: Interest Payments Are Becoming a Major Problem
The creator discusses the escalating US debt crisis, highlighting record debt levels and annual deficits. A significant portion of government spending is now allocated to interest payments on this debt, surpassing expenses like Medicare and national defense. The government finances its deficit by selling treasury bills, notes, and bonds to investors.
Jun 22, 2026
Housing Market Update: Home Prices, Mortgage Rates & Outlook
The creator discusses the US housing market, stating that a crash is not occurring nationally, with prices up 2.0% year-over-year. While some local markets have seen price declines, the overall trend is flat to slightly up. The creator advises against waiting for a crash and suggests purchasing a home if ready, noting that nearly 25% of homes are still selling above list price.
Jun 18, 2026
The Fed Quietly Abandoned the 2% Inflation Target
The creator argues that the Federal Reserve, under new chair Kevin Worsh, has quietly shifted its inflation target from 2.0% to 2.9% and is not acting as hawkishly as mainstream media suggests. The creator points to the Fed's press release and summary of economic projections, noting that no members voted to raise interest rates and that the Fed plans to print money and expand its balance sheet, which the creator interprets as dovish, not hawkish.
Jun 16, 2026
The Book of Wealth: 10 Steps to Financial Freedom
The creator is promoting their book, "The Book of Wealth: 10 Steps to Financial Freedom," which offers actionable advice on building wealth. The book is presented as a clear set of instructions, akin to a recipe, for achieving financial success by earning more than you spend, investing the surplus, and protecting your money. The creator emphasizes that wealth building is not about being smart or lazy, but about having the right guidance.
Jun 10, 2026
Inflation is Surging Again
The creator discusses the recent CPI inflation report, noting a significant surge to 4.2% in May, the highest in three years. They express skepticism about the Federal Reserve's projection of inflation decreasing to 4.1% in June, citing concerns about rising energy prices due to geopolitical instability. The creator also analyzes the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates due to high inflation and a strong labor market.
Jun 8, 2026
The Fed May Be Forced to Raise Rates After This
The creator analyzes the recent jobs report, noting that the stronger-than-expected job creation in May has significantly shifted market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The report suggests a lower probability of rate cuts and a higher probability of rate hikes or maintained rates for the remainder of the year, particularly by the December meeting.
Jun 3, 2026
The Fed Found a New Way to Lower Inflation
The creator criticizes the Federal Reserve's methods for calculating inflation, arguing that the CPI and core PCE metrics are misleading and do not reflect the true rate of inflation as indicated by the M2 money supply. The video highlights the discrepancy between the reported inflation rates and the M2 money supply growth, suggesting the Fed manipulates calculations to understate inflation and reduce its obligations to social security recipients. The creator emphasizes the long-term impact of different inflation rates on price doubling periods.
Jun 1, 2026
Oil Crisis Warning — Here's What Happens Next
The creator discusses warnings from oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron, and the IEA, about critically low oil inventories. These companies suggest that current low reserves, combined with geopolitical factors and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) drawdowns by the US government, could lead to a significant spike in oil prices, potentially from $90 to $160 a barrel in a short period.
May 29, 2026
Mortgage Rates Are Rising Again — Here's What Happens Next
The creator discusses the rising mortgage interest rates and their impact on housing affordability. They explain how mortgage rates are correlated with the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been climbing due to inflation expectations stemming from the US-Iran conflict. The video sets up three scenarios for future interest rate movements.
May 26, 2026
How to Boost Your Productivity With One Simple Habit
The creator shares a personal productivity strategy centered around using a daily checklist, emphasizing consistency over motivation. They explain that relying on motivation is unreliable due to fluctuating moods and energy levels, leading to inconsistent progress. By creating a structured checklist, individuals can reduce mental friction and take action even when unmotivated, which is crucial for long-term progress in areas like building wealth, fitness, business, and investing.
May 20, 2026
Housing Market Has a New Problem: Surging Mortgage Rates
This video discusses the recent surge in mortgage interest rates, explaining their correlation with US Treasury yields. The creator attributes the rise in Treasury yields to factors like the petrodollar system, where Gulf countries may have fewer dollars to invest in US debt due to reduced oil exports and increased demand for dollars from other countries to purchase oil.
May 18, 2026
How Will the New Federal Reserve Handle This Inflation Crisis?
The creator discusses the Federal Reserve's new leadership under Kevin Warsh, appointed by President Trump. The core issue is the conflict between Trump's desire for interest rate cuts to boost the economy and the current high inflation environment, which would normally necessitate rate hikes. The creator questions how Warsh will navigate this pressure, suggesting he might cut rates despite the inflationary risks to please Trump and secure personal financial gains.
May 11, 2026
Stock Market Investing: Why I'm More Defensive Right Now
The creator believes the US government will print money to monetize its debt, leading to inflation and a rise in asset prices, including stocks. They advocate for staying invested to ride this inflation wave, despite the long-term unsustainability of the debt situation. The creator is sharing their personal investment strategy, which they also post on Patreon.
May 4, 2026
Iran War is Now Hitting the U.S. Economy — Spirit Airlines Shut Down
The creator discusses how the conflict in Iran is impacting the US economy, specifically mentioning rising gasoline and diesel prices, which are leading to increased costs for transportation, food, and manufacturing. Spirit Airlines is cited as a casualty, with 17,000 jobs lost.
May 1, 2026
Why I'm Investing in Oil — To Protect Against a Stock Market Crash
The creator discusses the current oil supply shock, comparing it to historical events and explaining how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are impacting global supply. The video argues that oil prices could significantly increase due to anticipated shortages and the need for demand destruction, with potential to exceed $150 per barrel.
Apr 30, 2026
The Fed is Trapped — No Good Options Remain
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting resulted in interest rates remaining unchanged at 3.75%. A significant dissent among voting members, with four dissents not seen since 1992, highlights internal disagreement. While the majority agreed on the rate decision, three members opposed the official statement's language leaning towards rate cuts, indicating a more hawkish sentiment within the committee.
Apr 27, 2026
The U.S. Can’t Afford a Recession — So They’ll Print Trillions
The creator argues that the US government can no longer afford a recession due to its reliance on tax revenue from income, corporate profits, and capital gains. Historical data from the dot-com crash, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic are used to illustrate how recessions lead to decreased tax collections and ballooning deficits, forcing government intervention. The creator suggests this makes recessions 'banished' and implies a need for investors to understand this dynamic.
Apr 20, 2026
De-Dollarization: The Petrodollar Is Under Attack
The creator explains the concept of dedollarization, where countries move away from using the US dollar for international trade and reserves. This reduced demand for dollars could lead to inflation, higher interest rates, and a lower standard of living for Americans. The video aims to inform viewers about this process and suggest ways to protect themselves financially.
Apr 17, 2026
Housing Market Crash: Why Home Prices Still Aren't Falling
The creator discusses the current state of the US housing market, noting that despite high mortgage rates and poor affordability, home prices are not crashing. Key factors contributing to this include the 'lock-in effect' where existing homeowners with low mortgage rates are hesitant to sell, and persistently low inventory levels. The video also touches on how geopolitical events and Federal Reserve actions influence mortgage interest rates.
Apr 15, 2026
The Real Cost of the Iran War Is Surging
The creator discusses the underestimated costs of the Iran war, highlighting discrepancies between reported figures and the actual expenses due to inventory accounting and replacement costs at higher prices. The video details specific instances of destroyed military aircraft and equipment, emphasizing the significant financial burden of replacing these assets.
Apr 12, 2026
Stagflation Warning in the USA: Iran Deal Fails
The creator discusses the failure of US-Iran peace talks, which they believe increases the risk of stagflation. A key point of contention was Iran's commitment to not develop nuclear weapons. The creator also highlights the potential economic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, noting that 20% of global oil supply passes through it, and suggests this could lead to oil price spikes.
Showing 1-25 of 36 posts · Page 1 of 2